Podcast | Trendreport 12: The War in Ukraine: The Moment of Truth in 2026?

00:00:01:

00:00:05: Welcome to the podcast of The Austrian Institute for International Affairs.

00:00:25: Hi, Chinese.

00:00:27: It's great to have you!

00:00:29: So... You've been dealing with the war in Ukraine and your trend report says that the year of truth is going to be in that war.

00:00:43: Why do you come to a conclusion that this year is such an important year?

00:00:49: Thank-you.

00:00:51: What is clear to my mind, this war cannot continue indefinitely at the pace and in form it has taken over the past four years.

00:01:02: The combination of several factors makes it possible that a crisis could be resolved in twenty-six.

00:01:08: You have heated negotiations with aggressor Russia joining the negotiation table for the first time in early twenty-six.

00:01:17: You have the military stalemate, you have a sharp slowdown of the Russian economy although the Iranian crisis has provided Russia with an unexpected win for all.

00:01:29: .You have the relative robustness of security guarantees obtained by Ukraine in January.

00:01:35: two thousand and twenty six in Paris at.

00:01:40: you have the forthcoming US midterms elections in November.

00:01:46: The territorial question will be key, meaning the fate of the Donbass.

00:01:51: The demands on both sides seem irreconcilable although Ukraine has made significant concessions raising based on the current line of contact, rather than an illusory return to territorial integrity that existed before the invasion.

00:02:10: You

00:02:10: mean Crimea for instance?

00:02:12: Crimea exactly!

00:02:15: Fifty-four percent of Ukrainian population still rejects the proposal transfer all Donbass under Russian control in exchange security guarantees.

00:02:26: however more and more Ukrainians start considering the once unthinkable surrendering land.

00:02:35: So creative solutions will be needed, this would have major implications for instance on Ukraine's sustainable future since a large part of Ukrainian natural resources are now under Russian occupation and also major implications on the national elections to come.

00:02:57: How do you want these elections to be held in the twenty percent of territory occupied by Russia, without formalizing the division of Ukraine into two parts and legitimising Russia's annexation?

00:03:11: You mean it is more internal dynamics within Ukraine that are... not more, but these are also forces that drive towards peacemaking.

00:03:21: But how do you see such a peace evolving.

00:03:27: Is it real peace or is it a ceasefire?

00:03:30: So what will we be seeing in the next future?

00:03:32: and then of course, We need to discuss the war on Iran And how that has affected Or maybe even delayed any conflict solution In the case of Ukraine.

00:03:40: That's very fair question.

00:03:42: If you consider The experience Of the Minsk agreements and the period two thousand fourteen Two thousand twenty-two You see that Putin might Be inclined To play with a fake peace, to keep Ukraine in limbo between war and peace.

00:04:01: With constant harassment, gray zones, hybrid warfare... And we know that the Russian president is an expert on keeping pressure while faking negotiating peace.

00:04:16: So I think it's the main danger for Ukraine A kind of hasty bad peace

00:04:22: and of course the USA.

00:04:24: And also interested in an easy solution, less than a long-term solution.

00:04:31: but what would be your prediction?

00:04:34: I mean it's so difficult to make predictions but do you foresee to happen this year or that there will if you like, weak peace kind of solution coming up this year?

00:04:49: or do you see rather the continuation with current situation?

00:04:53: It's very difficult to predict and I don't have any crystal balls.

00:04:59: Yeah... it might be in between these and a lot will also depend on the crisis in Iran.

00:05:09: happy to discuss further.

00:05:14: We see that the war in Iran is kind of distracting, you know?

00:05:17: The US broker from the war on Ukraine.

00:05:21: It has also consequences both Russia and Ukraine.

00:05:26: so a lot will depend on the Middle East.

00:05:30: May I add here, there is a lot of talk about the fact that Russia is one of beneficiaries because they make more money with oil and gas exports now.

00:05:42: So do you see?

00:05:45: a direct impact of that on the war or is it just delaying a solution?

00:05:50: I mean, in my opinion.

00:05:53: It won't be a game changer and kind guarantee total win for Russia but it might be delaying any sort of solutions...

00:06:04: Absolutely!

00:06:05: At first glance crisis in Iran appears to be benefiting Russia But that's only a short-term picture.

00:06:13: You see longer term dynamics, that may work in Ukraine's favor.

00:06:19: First Russia's image as the great power is suffering.

00:06:23: See you have Syria Venezuela and now Iran.

00:06:26: Moscow's reputation has a reliable ally and protector has vanished.

00:06:32: Russia has been effectively cut out of the diplomacy to end Iran's conflict, as the Gulf states Pakistan and Turkey take lead.

00:06:40: So all in all The Iran war exposes limits of Russia's leverage in fragmenting regional order.

00:06:48: And second, the Iranian crisis has strengthened Ukraine's diplomatic leverage.

00:06:54: so Ukraine has raised the operational lessons.

00:06:57: for four years of hard defense against Russian drones and missiles.

00:07:02: it has offered expertise and material support to the Persian Gulf states.

00:07:13: President Zelensky toured Middle East capitals and concluded security cooperation agreements with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar.

00:07:24: And it was given a red carpet welcome in Damascus which is somehow ironical because it was a former Russian ally.

00:07:33: In return Ukraine could receive badly needed investments into its drone industry which has been booming at an exponential pace, but could grow even faster with more funding.

00:07:46: So you see that the picture is more balanced than... I guess there are

00:07:50: also new alliances emerging right?

00:07:53: It was quite surprising that Zelensky and The Gulf States kind of develop the new working relationship, if you like.

00:08:02: Ulrich going forward.

00:08:04: so and this is I mean i know your are cautious to make predictions but do say it's going be an important decisive year in this conflict that we might see something like ceasefire even a kind of, at least how should I say heating off the conflict.

00:08:31: But one of the problems in this context is probably also that once you have reached a kind of agreement, You need third party to monitor and implement things needed on the ground.

00:08:45: Usually these are international organizations And it would be really fit for such a task as OSCE based here in Vienna.

00:08:56: Why?

00:08:58: Is the OSE really that fit for that?

00:09:01: And what can you do and if there are obstacles in the OCE to implement any kind of ceasefire solution or peace solution.

00:09:15: Yes, let's be honest!

00:09:17: The OSE is my only organisation able to provide with a needed experience expertise and know-how to professionally monitor a possible ceasefire in Ukraine, to patrol the long and heavily mined line of contact at the demilitarized buffer zone.

00:09:35: To verify disengagement forces and withdraw all troops' heavy weapons.

00:09:40: To assess coming in, and on the longer term and beyond simply freezing the conflict.

00:09:51: to address key problems such as the third treatment of minorities during the return of refugees and the resettlement of IDPs.

00:10:00: To assist with DDR demobilization disarmament and reintegration ,and large flows small arms and light weapons .

00:10:09: To supervise humanitarian demining and decontamination.

00:10:13: to help secure a neutral zone around the Zaporizhia nuclear plant and manage incidents that need to be de-escalated, and arbitrate claims of violations.

00:10:27: You know that the OSCE has a long eight years experience in Ukraine.

00:10:32: The special monitoring mission deployed between two thousand fourteen and twenty-two, And there is no other institution or organization on this scene That can operate with comparable effectiveness

00:10:46: Also not United Nations?

00:10:49: No!

00:10:50: The UN had bad memories of war next Yugoslavia In the nineties and I do not see the UN... You

00:10:58: mean, the massacre in Spain?

00:11:01: Exactly.

00:11:03: Neither did you nor NATO or neither could contribute to de-escalation of conflict in any meaningful way And i'm not even referring to the UK & France led coalition of the willing or any comparable awkward concept, so if not the OSC who else?

00:11:21: Yeah

00:11:21: but are there obstacles for an active engagement of the OSCE.

00:11:27: Of

00:11:28: course several obstacles would need to be removed.

00:11:31: the gap between the seven hundred international monitors that the SMM deployed at the special monitoring mission in Ukraine, between two thousand fourteen and twenty-two.

00:11:44: So I've a hate of its capacity into two thousand thirty.

00:11:47: one seven hundred monitors only on we would need thousands off troops to monitor whole line of contacts in two thousand twenty six.

00:11:57: so they got is enormous.

00:12:00: But this staffing problem would be the same for any other monitoring force.

00:12:05: The safety and security of the monitors is also extremely important, that will weigh on the minds of states.

00:12:12: And at the end of today, Ukrainians need to decide whether they want to use DOC without their ownership.

00:12:20: There's nothing Vienna can do that.

00:12:23: the OSCE has a bad reputation currently in Ukraine.

00:12:28: What actually strikes me most is the silence of the fifty-seven OSCE participating states, so far only the current Swiss chair of the OSC and that's their role... And the French President Emmanuel Macron have referred to the OSCI as possible responsible actor in Ukraine into its two thousand fourteen twenty-two legacy.

00:12:51: nobody else as far as I know.

00:12:54: Loïc, may i interfere?

00:12:57: For an engagement of the OSCE this would require a mandate.

00:13:04: right.

00:13:05: and who is giving that mandate actually ?

00:13:08: The mandate will be given by the fifty-seven participating states which is both a strength and weakness for the organisation.

00:13:21: I would say more a weakness than force, but we will need of course the agreement of the fifty-seven participating states including the Russian Federation...

00:13:31: And does it also require an UN Security Council mandate?

00:13:35: Do you think that something like this kind of mandate could even strengthen the position?

00:13:47: also people on the ground there, right?

00:13:49: That's

00:13:49: not a prerequisite.

00:13:51: Yeah that is not necessary.

00:13:52: and in two thousand fourteen The mandate of DSMM was agreed without any backing Of the UN.

00:13:58: but off course.

00:13:59: A joint action, a joint OSC-UN Action would definitely reinforce the power On the field.

00:14:08: And maybe I should mention In twenty sixteen and seventeen You had such plans of a joint U.N.-O.A.C force to be deployed on the ground at that time, it was unsuccessful.

00:14:23: but maybe we could revitalize these plants?

00:14:27: So what you might see is after power politics or war politics when there's need for things we may see international organizations such as OAC where There have been many discussions over the last years that they are in a coma and might come back from the coma, refined their position.

00:14:52: Thank you so much Loïc for this talk to our audience.

00:14:59: I can just say please stay tuned.

00:15:00: we will be coming with more podcasts soon!

00:15:17: Stay tuned for more intriguing insights.