Elections in Israel on 27 October 2026

00:00:01: Welcome to the podcast of The Austrian Institute for International Affairs.

00:00:16: He comes from originally, he comes from Israel and is currently doing his studies at the Lauder Business School here in Vienna.

00:00:40: And at the same time at University of Tel Aviv he's about to finish his final thesis on the area security studies.

00:00:48: I mean...I have a feeling that these elections are observed by many people also Europe and beyond And of course, in Israel.

00:01:00: these seem to be very important elections.

00:01:03: Do you have the feeling that these elections on the twenty seventh of October?

00:01:07: Twenty six

00:01:08: are

00:01:08: more important than any earlier election?

00:01:12: Okay That's a pretty broad question.

00:01:15: first of all Thank You very much for introduction and thank you for having me on the podcast.

00:01:20: Are these elections more important then?

00:01:22: before I would say some aspects.

00:01:24: yes First of all, fun fact about the current Israeli government.

00:01:31: This is one I believe three.

00:01:35: you have to check me but i think it's very few governments in Israel that actually managed to survive for four years and given the political vacuum In which they manage to assume power It's very unusual because this isn't a stable time and certainly not managed to last for four years, yeah.

00:01:58: So in that sense we have to ask how did it happen?

00:02:01: And what happened before... What was happening before is that In Israel between two thousand nineteen and two thousand twenty-two there've been I think Four national elections or five i'm Not sure if they were four and the nation simply could not reach a resolution.

00:02:18: They couldn't conclude which government wanted They could not conclude whether Benjamin Netanyahu should stay in power, the government or be completely out.

00:02:27: And we reached a point where there was simply political vacuum under which a few fringe parties managed to rally together and form this current government that is now really caught up so many controversies around the world.

00:02:42: So, twenty-twenty two was the first year of this government and they pushed for a lot radical changes that a lot of Israelis were not very happy about.

00:02:49: They were trying to cripple the judicial system through going after national media outlets.

00:02:55: also like internationally on international stage there are pushing for some changes but we're not.

00:03:00: I mean some Israelis where not okay with them.

00:03:03: So already in twenty-twenty two there was a climate of national crisis, or a lot of protests surrounding this government and surrounding you know like whether it should be empowered the changes they are pushing for.

00:03:15: And from this power vacuum and from this national crisis The October seventh disaster Of twenty three happened which has basically dragged the whole Middle East into a state of permacrisis with conflicts constantly flaring up around the whole middle east.

00:03:32: So this is where we are at four years later.

00:03:34: I mean, who would have thought that so much had happened in four years?

00:03:38: And your question about whether these elections are significant... ...I think we need to break it down into external factors and internal factors.

00:03:47: Internally those elections are incredibly significant because a lot of Israelis today feel like they're squeezed out of their own country.

00:03:57: They're squeezed culturally, politically.

00:04:01: There is a strong base of people in Israel who feel like this government does not represent them.

00:04:07: Because, one thing that should be noted and I guess we'll talk about it probably more later... ...is that voting really based on ethnicity or the degree of religiosity of the people.

00:04:18: And many people are not ethnically or religiously affiliated with the regime.

00:04:23: If you squeeze out for them It's their final push to get something new.

00:04:30: Are you talking about the more secular people in Israel or who feels squeezed

00:04:36: out?

00:04:37: I would say that there are very few leftists in Israel.

00:04:42: The secular mainstream, even the old mainstream, all established mainstream basically people of middle class People who are not very religious, people historically more associated with the old European migration that came into Palestine.

00:05:01: Can you say they're old elites?

00:05:06: Not really context...

00:05:07: Not necessarily because I think those living in the periphery of Tel Aviv and working day jobs come from a middle-class background – I wouldn't call them old elites!

00:05:19: the old elites are probably concentrated in some very expensive towns and Kibbutzim, where they have been like since a century or so.

00:05:29: I don't know if i could call them all deletes but i would say definitely The Moderate Mainstream.

00:05:34: And who?

00:05:34: If you may ask who votes for Likud and government that is led by Likut?

00:05:42: So first of all that LikUD as its own thing... ...the rest of parties in the government are very fringe.

00:05:49: So, you know when we look especially at the far-right Otzmajudid Benvir Smotrich these people that you hear about they are the fringest of the fringe.

00:05:57: They I mean if let's say for comparison in Austria If Kikl scores as one of the highest parties In national polls this guys they score sixth and seventh.

00:06:10: so they do not have such a strong basis.

00:06:13: it is growing but don't have such A strong base.

00:06:15: People who vote for Netanyahu.

00:06:17: That's a complicated question.

00:06:19: I

00:06:19: would say before the war, let's go in the decades between the Oslo Accords and this war these were basically new middle-class elites like people who are raised out of poverty but lower socioeconomic status People concentrated on smaller towns or cities People who are slightly more religious, though not Orthodox and people that have a more hawkish security outlook.

00:06:55: May I ask you?

00:06:55: You're twenty-five years old And...you can't speak for your whole generation.

00:07:03: but what's your observation?

00:07:05: What is the situation of Israeli youth?

00:07:14: are the major concerns of young people in Israel currently?

00:07:18: I think definitely, to cost of living.

00:07:20: That's that biggest concern.

00:07:22: I think a lot of the concerns at Young People Have In Israel.

00:07:24: they also have here in Austria and Europe... ...in the United States for sure!

00:07:28: People cannot really make ends meet anymore.

00:07:31: For decades They haven't been able to buy house or get a stable job Or you know Get married early like.

00:07:41: well there all things maybe with older generations could do like without a question.

00:07:45: it's not that easy.

00:07:47: That is the biggest thing, obviously all security situations surrounding in the Middle East are on everybody but I think for young people how we make this place liveable?

00:08:00: Do many leave Israel?

00:08:02: or what your observation?

00:08:04: among friends I've heard that many young people try to find jobs elsewhere because of the situation in Israel.

00:08:14: Is this also your observation?

00:08:15: No,

00:08:17: it's not accurate to say so.

00:08:20: Israelis have a unique instinct for rallying around the flag and especially during times of crisis there are a lot of them returning.

00:08:26: So...I know if you've heard but during the recent war with Iran they were rescue flights But the rescue flights were from Europe and America, Asia or whatever towards Israel so that people could return to Israel.

00:08:39: And sit in the bunkers with their rockets on everything.

00:08:42: So a lot of Israelis they...

00:08:44: Was it an act of solidarity?

00:08:46: Or did people fear anti-semitic attacks or anything in Europe?

00:08:54: That's why they flew out back to Israel.

00:08:58: I

00:08:59: think it's definitely solidarity and also people feel responsibility to keep the ship afloat.

00:09:05: So if you have little kids back home, You will not drag them into a different country or go there And make sure they are safe and comfortable because... There is this notion in Israel especially among youths that we would not become refugees.

00:09:21: To tie-back your original question I don't see it as a movement of people, like...I'm unique because i lived in Europe for many years before.

00:09:32: You know?

00:09:32: I sort of grew up here but most Israelis are not really willing to live and I think that's about this thing.

00:09:45: they're not willing become refugees or anti-Semitism is just what we have.

00:09:50: We need keep the ship float cause nothing else.

00:09:54: not necessarily my mentality, but that's what a lot of young people say.

00:09:57: Would you say that young people tend more I don't know to vote for this or that party?

00:10:03: Is there any difference generational difference in voting behavior?

00:10:09: Yeah very good question and i definitely see a difference...I think that always have a lot arguments with my parents about it because of the social tensions that you see in Israel between secular and religious, left-wing and right wing... ...and Ashkenazi and Sephardic people so on.

00:10:31: A lot of this belongs more to my parents' generation than to younger generations because you have to understand it.

00:10:37: You asked me earlier who are the people who voted Likud?

00:10:40: It was a bit hard for me to answer because today's generation is very mixed.

00:10:45: It used to be an anti-establishment movement when it rose first into government,

00:10:51: right?

00:10:52: That's a different topic.

00:10:53: But that

00:10:54: is not anymore!

00:10:55: Today it IS the establishment like every other anti-establishment movements in the end.

00:11:02: but yeah lot of young people today.

00:11:05: I mean for example i just look at my background My dad's family is German and Polish, my mom's family Sephardic.

00:11:12: so Turkey Bulgaria Greece A lot of people are extremely mixed, and this mix is not just in where your grandparents come from.

00:11:19: It's also how religious you are what your ethnicity is And these things.

00:11:24: as I said at the beginning of the podcast In Israel This normally determines who to vote for.

00:11:29: So it's a question about voting behavior Of younger people.

00:11:32: Um...I think that The younger people Are so already mixed amongst each other That its harder To separate Like..it becomes hard to seperate or easier to separate, sorry who you are from what you vote for.

00:11:47: I think that the older people they definitely say generation by parents there is a clear divide.

00:11:53: A lot of people were Netanyahu loyalists.

00:11:55: They stayed with him no matter what young people are skeptics.

00:11:58: So like everywhere in the world Yeah It's it's the same motions as we see here in Austria.

00:12:03: Younger people are skeptical and a lot of them push back against establishment.

00:12:08: And very surprised myself!

00:12:09: When i was going into school in Israel when i was fifteen during the war of I think it was Gaza War, yeah Operation Protective Edge.

00:12:19: All the kids in my class were like we need to show them who's boss and only go Netanyahu or right wing.

00:12:25: today many are same people.

00:12:26: they say no we should go Socialist We Should Go Left.

00:12:29: We Should Do This Because They've Become Skeptical.

00:12:34: The older generation hasn't really woken up yet.

00:12:36: On My Generation you also see a strong move toward fringe far-right parties as well.

00:12:42: You do?

00:12:43: Yeah, among young people.

00:12:44: yeah

00:12:44: is and that would be my next question what role does the Palestinian issue?

00:12:50: the war in Gaza?

00:12:52: you know the atrocities in Gaza but also the settler attacks in West Jordan uh in in the West Bank.

00:13:01: I'm sorry play in the inner Israeli discourse.

00:13:07: Is it part of the political debates or is it absolutely absent?

00:13:11: I would not say its absent, but in Israel real politics are very strong.

00:13:21: Normally these things were viewed through the lens of reward and punishment.

00:13:29: so there's a lot to talk about the settlers at this moment for example If they go out of their way to beat up European officials What does it mean for me if I want to now travel to France in the summer and have a vacation?

00:13:41: So, this course isn't really about...

00:13:45: Humanitarian questions or human rights.

00:13:47: It's all about principles and values.

00:13:50: It is about consequences of Israeli voters.

00:13:55: at

00:13:55: the same time i think its also important to remember that This Is A Country At War and that Israelis, Palestinians or enemies.

00:14:02: And obviously I think in Europe a lot of people have managed to forget but like when there is an enemy on the other side at the border you feel it's either you are them.

00:14:12: It's hard for many people thinking this.

00:14:14: humanitarian paradigms For young people even left-wing young people has a lot strategic thinking.

00:14:21: The Palestinian question is more about what can we do so that minimize bad consequences.

00:14:29: So the right-wingers would say we need to press them harder so that they do not attack us.

00:14:35: The more, I'd say real politics socialists will say We need to loosen their restrictions so that we can be on better terms with our world and then our economy flourishes And everything will be fine.

00:14:46: But none of this is really from.

00:14:49: maybe we should treat them better.

00:14:52: Maybe it's not humanitarily correct but once again in context of a war I think for many people it's hard to make sure.

00:15:01: Is

00:15:01: there any party that criticizes or voices in the public, that criticises... ...the scale of measures taken and casualties?

00:15:15: Or is this not part of a political debate on Israel?

00:15:19: In Gaza we say no because people still have trauma from the October SEMP attack.

00:15:27: So it's very hard for many people to feel this sort of like, you know, proportionality or to think in those terms.

00:15:36: what is the goal here.

00:15:38: People really think in terms of retaliation but when comes to settler violence there are definitely a lot questions about whats'the end point why we're doing it's enough to go on any mainstream news website.

00:15:52: I'm not talking left-wing news, i'm talking like winded news about the main stream sources.

00:15:56: you scroll through comments and a lot of the comments would say that settlers behave like jihadists or settlers are doing this.

00:16:03: we're doing that.

00:16:05: so um...like alot of oppositionary comment but when he comes to Gaza there is really did people..I mean obviously a lot.

00:16:14: ppl aren't happy see destruction.

00:16:16: at the same time they They really see it as an acute threat and they say if its either this or the come into our country again, then we have to do that.

00:16:26: And yet there are some voices raise these issues like producers and directors of the film NASA one also.

00:16:37: several awards I think were also quite criticized for in Israel because.

00:16:47: But was this film shown ever in Israel?

00:16:50: or did you hear any domestic discussions about the film itself?

00:16:55: Yeah, there were a lot of domestic discourse.

00:16:57: I think pretty sure that you can find it...I don't know where its shown because i was already living here when all these things happened.

00:17:06: but definitely there is alot of domestic discussion on it.

00:17:10: There's an expression in Hebrew You dont wash your dirty laundry outside.

00:17:16: And for one, I kind of agree.

00:17:18: I understand because even if a certain movie highlights an acute issue that is happening in the world today where there's already so much anti-Semitism and Jews are not as safe to be Israelis or they're used to being.

00:17:39: That's what people say.

00:17:40: Yeah, I mean not here to express my views but a lot of people would say we are not sure it is the right idea even if your point was correct.

00:17:48: It isn't about going on stage in an foreign country and presenting this slide.

00:17:52: so i'm not sure What the goal for the producer?

00:17:55: Was that he didn't look too much into his issue?

00:17:56: But um...I wouldn't count as an Israeli voice.

00:18:00: I'd count him as an extra-Israeli voice An external Israeli voice But inside the Israeli discourse you won't hear anyone speak like that.

00:18:11: What happened to the protest movement?

00:18:13: There were big protests against the government's ambitions, who decreased the role of the constitutional court.

00:18:28: what happened then?

00:18:29: so is this all on hold and if you like, impact of this.

00:18:41: earlier protests on these elections now.

00:18:44: Have you heard about the Christmas truce of World War One when I think it was the British or Germans and they stopped firing at each other for fourteen days before Christmas?

00:18:58: And they exchange different troops and uniforms.

00:19:01: Is it true

00:19:02: story

00:19:02: or is the myth?

00:19:04: It's true, yeah I think its pretty similar to what you see today between government and protest movement.

00:19:16: because somewhere when war started they made informal reconciliation.

00:19:22: But somehow, like two years into the war I believe they started trying to promote these laws again.

00:19:28: To cripple the judicial system and The protest movement kind of start it again but on a much lower flame than before.

00:19:36: And one of the reasons i think yeah.

00:19:39: One other reason that today is not as loud as used to be Is some people from the protest movements are organizing in political parties.

00:19:47: So your question yes will have an effect.

00:19:49: It's becoming institutionalized.

00:19:51: People in the Democratic Party of Israel, it's a uniform party.

00:19:54: Some of them come from that protest movement.

00:19:56: as far as I know There is the Reservist Party which represents The reservists of the Israeli army.

00:20:03: so people who finish their service and they keep coming into the Army to do To do extra work And a lot of them don't feel represented by the judicial reforms or by the Netanyahu regime.

00:20:14: some do some dont but some people from the process movement are representing there.

00:20:19: So I think that reason it's quieter now is becoming institutionalized this movement, yeah

00:20:25: What do you expect of these elections?

00:20:27: what will be their outcome?

00:20:28: It always difficult and tricky to make or suggest developments in future But like...what your guess?

00:20:38: At this point its very hard tell.

00:20:41: we're one week before election.

00:20:46: One issue with Israel is that it's a coalition system and not like the US, where you have either one party wins.

00:20:53: So there could be a lot of combinations.

00:20:55: so at this moment it looks as if Gadi Eisenkott was going to beat Netanyahu in the raw voices or votes he would get.

00:21:06: He's probably going to beat Netanyahu, he is more of a center still right-winger but very much centrist on many issues all the establishment.

00:21:16: But that does not guarantee you will be able to form a coalition because some people may not want to sit with him.

00:21:23: The Orthodox Jews for example would likely not sit with them unless they make some coalition agreement.

00:21:31: so it could really go.

00:21:33: Anyway, depending on the deals behind the scenes that politicians make I think personally i think that best outcome would be a broad coalition of Likud and Eisencote's party where they will sit together with Eisencotes prime minister.

00:21:47: And between us I don't think that Netanyahu accept any position in such government.

00:21:51: That is not Prime Minister!

00:21:53: This means his career at least over.

00:21:56: for now I think this is the most optimistic scenario, but i don't think it's that.

00:22:00: Which would be difficult for him because he might face persecution right?

00:22:04: Because of these corruption allegations.

00:22:06: what role do these allegations play in their campaign?

00:22:12: This is very hard to tell because obviously here you hear The propaganda on each side.

00:22:17: yeah so from Netanyah outside they will tell you That the whole case...I don't know if you've heard about the cases.

00:22:24: He's accused of receiving champagne and cigars from a contact in major company, Israel.

00:22:31: And to turn this now into a major bribery allegation is a little bit far-fetched that what you would hear form his side?

00:22:38: I think it will be living in the world where much bigger corruption takes place...

00:22:45: Exactly!

00:22:46: It has been ongoing for ten years.

00:22:50: The supporters of Netanyahu ask rightfully asking my opinion, why do you need to sit here for ten years and investigate the receipt of champagne and cigars?

00:23:00: And turn this into a big public referendum on one leader when diplomacy is much more corrupt these days than simply that.

00:23:09: On other side with your voices they would say that Nenia has become so caught up in his trial he's not willing let out power because it protects him from any possible consequences.

00:23:21: And let's be honest, I mean Israel has a former president and a former prime minister in prison Moshe Katzav and Olmer Tehud Olmer.

00:23:31: These are two very high-profile public figures.

00:23:33: that because

00:23:34: they're imprisoned.

00:23:35: Because

00:23:35: so Moshe Katsa had rape allegations against him sexual harassment and Elwood Olmer had corruption and bribery but on much grander scale than them now.

00:23:46: But still um i think it's uh It's reasonable to to understand why Netanyahu is wary of the judicial system, because it's been putting a lot of officials behind bars.

00:23:57: But at the same time in the end-of-the day we're talking about champagne and cigars are not about state budget or anything like that... And what

00:24:04: role does October seven play in these elections?

00:24:08: After all there were allegations also recently mentioned again that Netanyah was actually informed security concerns, and also warned about the possible terrorist attack.

00:24:24: Is that part of public debate?

00:24:26: And might be something that turns people against Netanyahu?

00:24:33: That's certainly a part of the public debate... ...and it is turning people towards Netanyah!

00:24:38: At the same time we as international relations scholars have to be critical when reading certain things because I think in the end, to suddenly hear all these allegations and have all this leaks one week before elections.

00:24:57: Obviously they're not false but at the same time you understand that there are two sides here trying push-and-pull information against each other.

00:25:05: it's impossible to know what happened behind the scenes.

00:25:08: Obviously, it's impossible for me to comment on that because I have no idea.

00:25:11: What i can say is your question.

00:25:13: yes It definitely does change the discourse and a lot of people especially young People they feel like They were abandoned by this guy who first so many years had presented himself as The security guys the guy you can deter Hamas in all these organizations where well In fact A Lot Of money from Qatar was transferred together under his tab And On the eve of October seven he did not catch it on time For whatever reason.

00:25:37: We don't know.

00:25:39: And I think the commission of investigation is one big issue that would be raised in these elections as well, so obviously your position supports state investigations and Netanyahu's kind-of worry about it because for obvious reasons yeah

00:25:58: What?

00:25:58: Is there anything we haven't touched upon you'd like to mention before we close this podcast

00:26:04: ?

00:26:04: It has been comprehensive.

00:26:07: So much to say and I feel like every question you ask already fill my mind springing into so many different directions.

00:26:15: We can do an individual podcast on everyone of these questions in my opinion, uh...I don't have anything particular that would not now eat up another thirty minutes.

00:26:27: Thankyou for having me.

00:26:27: it was great!

00:26:40: Stay tuned for more intriguing insights.